The Effects of Post-Main-Sequence Solar Mass Loss on the Stability of Our Planetary System

Abstract

We present the results of extensive long-term integrations of systems of planets with orbits initially identical to subsets of the planets within our Solar System, but with the Sun's mass decreased relative to the masses of the planets. For systems based on the giant planets, we find an approximate power-law correlation between the time elapsed until a pair of planetary orbits cross and the solar-to-planetary-mass ratio, provided that this ratio is ≲0.4 times its current value. However, deviations from this relationship at larger ratios suggest that this correlation may not be useful in predicting the lifetime of the current system.Detailed simulations of the evolution of planetary orbits through the solar mass loss phase at the end of the Sun's main-sequence lifetime suggest that the orbits of those terrestrial planets that survive the Sun's red giant phase are likely to remain stable for (possibly much) longer than a billion years and those of the giant planets are likely to remain stable for (possibly much) more than ten billion years. Pluto is likely to escape from its current 2:3 mean-motion resonance with Neptune within a few billion years beyond the Sun's main sequence lifetime if subject only to gravitational forces; its prognosis is likely to be even poorer when nongravitational forces are included. Implications for the effects of stellar mass loss on the stability of other planetary systems are discussed.