Abstract
It is imperative that decision-makers recognize when the intensity of human interference in regard to forest losses may result in adverse conditions for water ecosystem services. Several studies have indicated that defining thresholds is appropriate for indicating the ideal relationship between natural ecosystems and land uses in such a way as to ensure ecosystem service supply, but this knowledge is not readily available for different water services. To predict tipping points of change in the availability of seven water-related services, we assessed 11 catchments with different proportions of natural forests (Brazilian cerradão) and eucalyptus plantations. We analyzed water samples for 13 physical–chemical–biological parameters, which by specific aggregation functions define indices for each water service. We applied the piecewise model to evaluate the relationships between water service indices and natural forest cover. The results indicated that the highest potential gains occurred above 45% of forest. Landscapes with less than 20% natural forests tended to become unsustainable in maintaining services. Erosion control had a higher correlation with the decrease in natural forests.
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