The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Bank Loan Interest Rates in Turkey

Abstract

The purpose of the study to reveal how interest rates on loans offered to consumers by banks in Turkey are affected by macroeconomic factors. For this purpose, the personal loan interest rate is considered as the consumer loan interest rate, mortgage loan interest rate and vehicle loan interest rate. Macroeconomic factors, inflation, gold, exchange rate and money supply are included in the analysis. Three models have been established using monthly data for the period January 2009-June 2020. Firstly, cointegration test was applied to the models and it was determined that there is at least one cointegration relationship in each model. Long-term estimation results for the models are obtained by using the FMOLS method. In general, it was observed that the increase in the exchange rate tended to increase the bank loan interest rates, while the increase in the money supply lowered the bank loan interest rates. As a result of the causality analysis, bidirectional causality relationship from consumer loan interest rate to money supply and inflation, unidirectional causality from interest rate to gold price, unidirectional causality relationship from exchange rate to interest rate was determined. Unidirectional causality relationship from mortgage loan interest rate to money supply, unidirectional causality from exchange rate to interest rate was found. While it was determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between vehicle loan interest rate and money supply, gold price and inflation. It is expected that these results may guide banks and policymakers to determine interest rate policies.