Abstract
본 연구는 2015년의 담배가격인상 정책이 흡연율과 담배소비량에 미친 영향을 확인하고 정책의 성과를 평가한다. 2009년부터 2016년까지 8개년도 32분기 동안의 통계청 가계동향조사 자료를 이용하여 추세효과와 계절효과, 2015-1분기 정책시작시점의 단기충격효과 등의 교란요인을 보정하고 담배가격인상이 흡연율에 미친 영향을 로지스틱회귀분석으로, 담배소비량에 미친 영향은 선형회귀분석으로 추정하였다. 흡연율의 로지스틱회귀모형 추정결과 가격인상 전 31%였던 흡연가구비율이 가격 2,000원 인상으로 인해 28% 정도로 약 3%p 정도 감소했음을 확인하였고, 담배소비량의 선형회귀분석결과 흡연가구의 담배소비량이 가격인상 전 월18.5갑에서 가격인상 후 16갑 정도로 14% 정도 감소했음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 담배가격 2,000원 인상이 정책시작직후의 단기충격효과가 사라진 이후에도 유의한 수준의 흡연율 감소와 담배소비 감소를 유도하였음을 확인하였고, 이후로 추가적인 가격 인상정책을 고려할 경우 정책의 영향을 수량적으로 예측하는데 참고로 사용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.This study examines the effects of the tobacco price increasing policy in 2015 on smoking rate and tobacco consumption and evaluates the impact of the policy. We used the households survey data, the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS), which contains data collected throughout the past eight years, from 2009 to 2016. We analyzed the effect of tobacco price increase on smoking rate with logistic regression and the effect on tobacco consumption with linear regression. We adjusted the confounding factors such as trend effects, seasonal effects, and short-term shock effects for the first quarter of the 2015, when the policy was implemented. As a result of the logistic regression model for the cigarette smoking rate, it was confirmed that the ratio of smoking households, which was 31% before the policy, decreased by about 3% due to the price increased by 2,000 won. The linear regression analysis of cigarette consumption showed that the cigarette consumption was decreased by 14%, from 18.5 packs per month before the price increase to 16 packs after the price increase. The results of this study confirmed that the increase of tobacco price by 2,000 won caused the decrease of smoking rate and tobacco consumption significantly after the short-term shock effect and it can be used as a reference for quantitative estimation when considering additional price-increase policy.
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