The Effects of Geographical Variability on Protestant Church Membership Trends, 1980-1990

Abstract

Differences in the recent membership trends of liberal and conservative Protestant denominations have been a major focus of research on church growth and decline. This study examines the role of local contextual factors on these membership trends through their interaction with the detailed geographical distributions of eight large denominations, including four conservative groups and four more liberal groups. Results indicate that during the 1980s the more liberal groups tended to be concentrated geographically in places where contextual factors discouraged membership growth, while the conservative churches were concentrated in locations with conditions more conducive to membership growth. The findings suggest that the cumulative effects of local contextual factors have played a significant role in the contrasting patterns of membership change within liberal and conservative Protestantism in recent decades.