Abstract
In analysis of generation reliability assessment in power systems, the effect of both forced outages, and uncertainties in load forecasting must be taken into consideration. In this paper, the analysis has been evolved from loss-of-load and loss-of-energy probability techniques. The student-t-distribution method is used to calculate the uncertainty of the forecast peak demand at specified intervals of confidence. The effects of the numbers and the forced outage rates of the generating units have been studied.
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