Abstract
Immigration enforcement cooperation between final-destination and transit countries has increased in the last decades. I examine whether the Southern Border Plan, an immigration enforcement program implemented by the Mexican government in 2014, has curbed intentions of unauthorized migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to migrate to the United States. I use the announcement of the Southern Border Plan to implement a difference-in-differences approach and compare the evolution of short-run intentions to engage in additional unauthorized crossings of Central American (treatment group) relative to Mexican deportees (comparison group). The findings suggest that increased enforcement in Mexico decreases the likelihood of attempting repeated unauthorized crossings.
Highlights
About 50 million migrants worldwide lack the required legal permission to live and work in their chosen destination country
I examine whether the SBP, an enforcement initiative announced by the Mexican government to deter unauthorized migrants in transit through Mexico, has curbed the remigration intentions of Central American deportees
Using a DiD approach, I estimate the effect of the SBP on the intention to remigrate for Central American migrants in transit to the United States relative to Mexican deportees
Summary
About 50 million migrants worldwide lack the required legal permission to live and work in their chosen destination country Border Plan (SBP), an immigration enforcement program announced by the Mexican government in 2014 aimed at decreasing transit migration flows to the United States, has had an impact on remigration intentions of Central American deportees. In 2016, the number of checkpoints installed in Mexico decreased, and Fig. 1 shows that apprehensions by U.S authorities increased This implies that the ability of the United States to curb undocumented migration inflows partially depends on the extent to which Mexico controls transit flows originating from other Latin American countries. Without additional enforcement measures in Mexico, the evolution of reported intent of recidivism should not systematically differ among Central American and Mexican deportees To show that both groups follow similar pre-treatment trends, I provide descriptive evidence on the evolution of remigration intentions. Individual or household characteristics may induce changes in migration costs, thereby fostering, delaying, or preventing the realization of migration plans (Chort 2014)
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