Abstract
Abstract. To examine the efficacy of China's actions to control atmospheric pollution, three levels of growth of energy consumption and three levels of implementation of emission controls are estimated, generating a total of nine combined activity-emission control scenarios that are then used to estimate trends of national emissions of primary air pollutants through 2030. The emission control strategies are expected to have more effects than the energy paths on the future emission trends for all the concerned pollutants. As recently promulgated national action plans of air pollution prevention and control (NAPAPPC) are implemented, China's anthropogenic pollutant emissions should decline. For example, the emissions of SO2, NOx, total suspended particles (TSP), PM10, and PM2.5 are estimated to decline 7, 20, 41, 34, and 31% from 2010 to 2030, respectively, in the "best guess" scenario that includes national commitment of energy saving policy and implementation of NAPAPPC. Should the issued/proposed emission standards be fully achieved, a less likely scenario, annual emissions would be further reduced, ranging from 17 (for primary PM2.5) to 29% (for NOx) declines in 2015, and the analogue numbers would be 12 and 24% in 2030. The uncertainties of emission projections result mainly from the uncertain operational conditions of swiftly proliferating air pollutant control devices and lack of detailed information about emission control plans by region. The predicted emission trends by sector and chemical species raise concerns about current pollution control strategies: the potential for emissions abatement in key sectors may be declining due to the near saturation of emission control devices use; risks of ecosystem acidification could rise because emissions of alkaline base cations may be declining faster than those of SO2; and radiative forcing could rise because emissions of positive-forcing carbonaceous aerosols may decline more slowly than those of SO2 emissions and thereby concentrations of negative-forcing sulfate particles. Expanded control of emissions of fine particles and carbonaceous aerosols from small industrial and residential sources is recommended, and a more comprehensive emission control strategy targeting a wider range of pollutants (volatile organic compounds, NH3 and CO, etc.) and taking account of more diverse environmental impacts is also urgently needed.
Highlights
Attributed to the large size and rapid growth of its economy and energy consumption, China’s emissions of key primary atmospheric pollutants (SO2, NOx, and particle matter, PM) are estimated to be the highest in the world (Klimont et al, 2009; Lu et al, 2010; Lei et al, 2011a; Y. Zhao et al, 2013; B. Zhao et al, 2013)
IND is further divided into cement production (CEM), iron and steel plants (ISP), brick production (BRI), lime production (LIM), nonferrous metal production (NMP), and other industrial boilers and noncombustion processes (OIN), reflecting the structure of available data
Given the high frequency of serious haze and heavy urban and regional air pollution events, China has announced a national action plan of air pollution control, and a series of measures aimed at energy conservation and emission reduction will be implemented in the coming years
Summary
Attributed to the large size and rapid growth of its economy and energy consumption, China’s emissions of key primary atmospheric pollutants (SO2, NOx, and particle matter, PM) are estimated to be the highest in the world (Klimont et al, 2009; Lu et al, 2010; Lei et al, 2011a; Y. Zhao et al, 2013; B. Zhao et al, 2013). Zhao et al, 2013), accounting for 32, 31, and 31 % of global emissions, respectively (Cofala et al, 2012). Such high emissions have led to poor air quality (Richter et al, 2005; van Donkelaar et al, 2010; Lin et al, 2010) and various environmental impacts including public health damage
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