The effects of diplomatic sanctions and engagement on the severity of ongoing genocides or politicides

Abstract

This study tests the effects of diplomatic sanctions and engagement on reducing the severity of ongoing instances of genocide or politicide. I argue that neither diplomatic measure will be effective in slowing or stopping the killing. I argue that diplomatic sanctions merely reduce the flow of information without credibly signalling intent or commitment, while diplomatic engagement does not challenge perpetrators. Neither policy raises the costs of perpetrating genocide or politicide. Therefore, neither is expected to be useful in mitigating ongoing atrocities. Ordered logit analyses of ongoing genocides and politicides from 1976 to 2008 confirm these assumptions, and demonstrate that changing levels of diplomatic representation with atrocity perpetrators may make policymakers feel like they are ‘doing something’, but does little to reduce the lethality of ongoing mass killing. Under one set of circumstances, increased engagement even exacerbates the atrocities.