The Effects of Demographic Change on Selected Transportation Services and Demand

Abstract

Change in demographic characteristics, absent improvement in socioeconomic resources of minority households, are likely to affect the magnitude of change as well as the demand for various types of transportation. In this chapter the effects of population growth and change in the demographic characteristics of the population on change in vehicle ownership, drivers, and transportation mode choice on the work commute are analyzed. In addition, it explores the impacts of growth in the number of drivers and change in the age structure of the driving population on change in the number of vehicular crashes. Using U.S. Census Bureau projections to 2060 and other data, changes in transportation use and related factors are projected. Total population growth will be the major factor increasing the size of the driving population even as racial/ethnic changes and population aging work to attenuate that growth and lead to lower mileage driven per driver. These same changes will lead to an overall decrease in crash rates even as a larger number of elderly become victims of traffic fatalities. In addition, racial/ethnic changes are projected to lead to a larger proportion of the population using public transportation and carpooling and increases in the percentage of households without vehicles.