Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is spreading worldwide. Italy emerged early on as the country with the largest outbreak outside Asia. The outbreak in Northern Italy demonstrates that it is fundamental to contain the virus’ spread at a very early stage of diffusion. At later stages, no containment measure, even if strict, can prevent the saturation of the hospitals and of the intensive care units in any country. Here we show that it is possible to predict when the intensive care units will saturate, within a few days from the beginning of the exponential growth of COVID-19 intensive care patients. Using early counts of intensive care patients, we predict the saturation for Lombardy, Italy. We also assess short-term and long-term lockdown effects on intensive care units and number of deaths. Governments should use the Italian outbreak as a precedent and implement appropriate containment measures to prevent the saturation of their intensive care units and protect their population, also, and above all, in anticipation of a possible second exponential spread of infections.
Highlights
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory infectious disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, which originated in Wuhan, China, probably in early December 2019
Imposed two major containment measures: the lockdown on March 9th 2020, and the full lockdown on March 21st 2020, where all non-essential companies and manufacturing plant were closed. These measured helped to avoid the collapse of the whole national health system, yet they could not avoid the saturation of the intensive care units (ICU) beds in several Italian regions (Fig. 5)
In this work, we analyzed the temporal evolution of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy up to 4 months after the national lockdown declaration of March 9th 2020, and we discussed the short-term and long-term impact of the lockdown in containing the diffusion
Summary
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory infectious disease caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2 ( known as 2019-nCoV), which originated in Wuhan, China, probably in early December 2019. To avoid the saturation of the ICUs, governments need to impose strong containment measures, such as lockdown of the population early.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
