The Effects of Construal Level on Predictive Heuristics: Disentangling Representativeness From Availability

Abstract

Intuitive predictions about the future can expect upcoming events to conform with a pattern - representativeness heuristic - or to simply repeat the most recent and accessible outcome - availability heuristic. The present work proposes that while representativeness predictions require a relatively abstract comparison process, availability-based predictions reflect a concrete and local use of accessible information. Grounded on the construal level theory, this research pits one heuristic against the other in predictions about random events (rolling dice; coin tosses). Three studies suggest that low construal levels increase predictions consistent with the most accessible and recent outcomes while high levels of construal facilitate representativeness-consistent predictions. The findings highlight how construal level may determine reliance on one heuristic or the other.