The effects of conformity, information, and confidence upon subjects' willingness to take risk following a group discussion

Abstract

An attempt was made to influence the risk preferences of subjects on the Choice Dilemma Questionnaire by manipulating the content of video-recorded group discussions to which they were exposed. These group discussions differed in terms of the number of group members who espoused either risky or cautious arguments. Where all three group members argued in terms of caution there was a significant shift toward caution. There was a tendency for a shift toward risk to occur wherever at least one group member espoused risky arguments. A strong subject conformity effect was found, expressed as a linear trend for subjects to take increased risk as the proportion of subjects arguing in terms of risk increased. There was also an effect due to the level of initial riskiness of the subjects' scores over conditions. Increased certainty of judgment was found in all conditions following exposure to the taped discussion. The results were found to conflict with the risk as a value hypothesis and were interpreted within the confines of social conformity theory.