The effects of climate change on the distribution of European glass lizard Pseudopus apodus (PALLAS, 1775) in Eurasia

Abstract

AbstractThe distribution area of Pseudopus apodus includes the Balkan, Crimean peninsulas, and Ciscaucasia region in Europe, and Asia Minor and the Middle East. This area has experienced a significant habitat loss and fragmentation because of human population growth, increased farming, logging and climate change. To estimate how climate change will affect the presumed future distribution of the studied species, we constructed the possible current distribution of the species and its potential environmental risk for future dispersion. We used an ensemble prediction to forecast the location and distribution of suitable habitats for P. apodus in present and future (i.e. 2070) based on 19 environmental variables. The results were consistent among models and indicated that there are two most important variables that affect distribution pattern of the species: temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality. All of the models used in this study showed a significant AUC and TSS value. Based upon FDA and ensemble maps it is proposed here that species range will be extended to the east, in particular in higher altitude regions like Afghanistan, but its western range in Jordan will be shrunk. Comparison of the current distribution and future prediction reveals that suitable habitats of Pseudopus apodus will be shifted to higher elevations by 2070 and during this period the species is predicted to migrate from lowlands to higher elevations. Change in latitudinal range is also probable to find new suitable areas under predicted future climate scenarios.