The effects of climate change on flood hazards in Kelantan River Basin Malaysia

Abstract

Climate change has had a significant impact on the hydrological cycle, causing changes in precipitation patterns in both frequency and magnitude. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of climate change on flood hazards in Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. A distributed hydrological model called Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) simulates floods under current and future climate scenarios. The Climate Change Factor (CCF) is a tool for forecasting future climate scenarios. The storm used in this analysis had 50-year and 100-year recurrence intervals every 24 hours (ARI). The finding shows that the streamflow in Guillemard station will increase in the future for both the 50- and 100-year ARI. The streamflow increased to 10329 m3/s from 8434.9 m3/s in the current state and to 11220.2 m3/s from 9157.4 m3/s in the 50- and 100-year ARI, respectively. In both cases, the 100-year ARI flood magnitude is significantly less than the 50-year ARI flood extent (current and future). However, the flood depth in several towns located downstream of the Kelantan River Basin is more significant for the 100-year ARI than for the 50-year ARI for both cases. The study’s findings would be helpful to relevant agencies and government departments understand the current and potential flood hazard situation in the study area and assist them in developing effective mitigation strategies for future flood hazards.