Abstract
Hydrological cycle changes that occur due to a changing environment is a hot topic in the field of hydrological science. It is of great practical significance to study the response mechanism of hydrological process change for future water resources planning and management. In this study, the effects of climate and watershed characteristic change on the streamflow in a typical tributary of the Yellow River (the Fen River watershed) are studied based on the Budyko hypothesis. The results show that: the sensitivity coefficients of streamflow to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and the watershed characteristic coefficient were 0.1809, −0.0551, and −27.0882, respectively. This meant that a 1 mm decrease in the precipitation would induce a 0.1809 mm decrease in the streamflow. Additionally, a 1 mm decrease in the potential evapotranspiration would induce a 0.0551 mm increase in the streamflow, and an increase of 1 in the watershed characteristic coefficient would induce a 27.0882 mm decrease in the streamflow. The streamflow of the Fen River watershed showed a significant decreasing trend during the reference period (1951–1977). In addition, the streamflow of the change period (1978–2010) decreased 26.87 mm; and this was primarily caused by watershed characteristic change which accounted for 92.27%, while climate change only accounted for 6.50%.
Highlights
How the hydrological cycle responds in a changing environment is an important area of investigation in hydrological science[1]
The underlying surface condition of a watershed has been reported to have a more important function than climate change on the hydrological cycle, and it contributed more than 50% to streamflow change[14]
The elasticity method initially proposed by Schaake (1990)[19] uses elasticity coefficients to assess the sensitivity of the water yield to climate factors, and this method has been improving as a result of the efforts of other researchers[20]
Summary
How the hydrological cycle responds in a changing environment is an important area of investigation in hydrological science[1]. More and more researchers have begun to use climate sensitivity method to study the effects of climate change on watershed streamflow[7,8,9]. The equation, based on the Budyko hypothesis, is a typical representative model used to explore hydrothermal coupled equilibrium[11,12] This model was used by Chinese researchers for both humid and non-humid areas, and the results indicated the applicability of this model in China. The elasticity method initially proposed by Schaake (1990)[19] uses elasticity coefficients to assess the sensitivity of the water yield to climate factors, and this method has been improving as a result of the efforts of other researchers[20]. The objectives of this study are to (1) analyze the changes in climate, streamflow and catchment characteristics; (2) calculate the sensitivities of streamflow to climate and catchment changes; and (3) identify the contributions of climate and catchment variability to streamflow changes in the Fen River watershed
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