The Effects of Child Mortality Changes on Fertility Choice and Parental Welfare

Abstract

Empirical studies have overwhelmingly shown that a lower child mortality rate leads to lower fertility. Yet it has not been possible to satisfactorily analyze this relationship in even the simplest theoretical models. This paper attempts to bridge this gap between theory and the empirical literature. The paper also presents results on the effects of child mortality changes on parental welfare. The analysis captures the dynamic stochastic feature of fertility choice, subsumes other endogeneous choices (e.g., the quality of the children), and treats the number of children as a discrete variable (this added realism is important for the analysis).