Abstract
High suicide rate in Russia and its profound fluctuations over the past decades have attracted considerable interest. Purpose: To estimate the aggregate level effect of alcohol on the suicide rate in Russia. Method: Trends in age-adjusted, sex-specific suicide and alcoholism mortality rate (as a proxy for alcohol consumption) from 1956 to 2005 in Russia were analyzed employing an ARIMA analysis in order to asses bivariate relationship between the two time series. Results: The results of the time series analysis indicates the presence of a statistically significant association between the two time series at zero lag for male (r=0.61; SE=0.142), and for female (r=0.44; SE=0.142). Conclusion: In conclusion, the present study replicates previous findings suggesting close aggregate level association between alcohol and suicide mortality in Russia. The outcome of this study provides indirect support for the hypothesis that alcohol played a crucial role in the fluctuation in suicide mortality rate in Russia during recent decades.
Highlights
Suicide is one of the main causes of premature mortality in Russia [1]
In another study based on the Russian time series data between 1980 and 2005, Landberg 2008 found that overall alcohol consumption is significantly associated with both male and female suicides: a 1-litre increase in alcohol consumption would result in increase in suicide rate of 7.2% (8% for male and 4.3% for female)
A more recent update suggests that 1 litre increase in per capita consumption is associated with an increase in suicide rate of 7.0% for male and 3.2% for female
Summary
Suicide is one of the main causes of premature mortality in Russia [1]. High suicide rate in this country and its profound fluctuations over the past decades have attracted considerable interest [2,3,4,5,6].There is strong evidence of a crucial role of alcohol in explanation of this phenomenon [2,3,7,8]. Several studies highlighted a significant aggregate level association between alcohol and suicide in Russia In his time series analysis data for the period 1965-99 [7] has reported that a 1-litre increase in alcohol consumption is expected to increase suicide rate by 12% for total population (13% for men and 6% for women). A more recent update suggests that 1 litre increase in per capita consumption is associated with an increase in suicide rate of 7.0% for male and 3.2% for female [9]. In his time series analysis [10] found a positive association between alcohol-related mortality and suicide in Russia between 1956 and 2002
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