The Effects of Air Pollution on Acute Mortality in Moscow

Abstract

ISEE-417 Objective: The objective of the study was to estimate the relationship between outdoor air pollution levels and daily nonaccidental mortality in Moscow. Material and Methods: Moscow is the only city in Russia with continuous air pollution monitoring. Twenty-four-hour average concentrations of PM10 were available in the period between January 2003 and December 2005. NOx, SO2, and ozone 24-hour average concentrations were available also. As confounding factors we considered humidity, air temperature, and atmospheric pressure. Daily mortality from all natural causes, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality among all ages was obtained from the state statistical service for the same period of time. The relationship between daily mortality and air pollution was investigated with a Poisson model including distributed lag model approach. Results: Concentration-response factor in 95% CI was estimated in a range of 0.3% to 0.7% increase of daily mortality per 10 μg/m3 of PM10 with z = 4.7. Impact of time lag was statistically insignificant. Concentration-response factor for daily mortality in summer was 0.6% to 1.5% in 95% CI. Results for 1-day lag were statistically significant with z = 2.05. Concentration-response factor for daily mortality in winter was lower, equal to 0.1% to 0.8% in 95% CI. Central estimate for total acute mortality attributed to PM10 air pollution was 2300 cases annually, or 1.7% of total annual mortality in Moscow. Conclusions: The estimates of concentration-response factor are within the range of results for European cities, but higher than results of most recent studies in United States. One of the explanations could be the difference in air conditioning practice, and indoor/outdoor activities. About 2% of mortality attributed to air pollution is about twice higher than transport accident fatalities in Moscow.