The Effects of Acquisitions on the Value of Rivals in a Winner-Take-Mostt Economy

Abstract

Revaluations of industry peers around horizontal acquisitions are negative when targets are private, but positive when they are public. We posit this “revaluation spread” arises because acquiring managers favor private targets when public firms are overvalued. Targets’ ownership status thus conveys information about industry assets’ misvaluation and triggers predictable revaluations. Supporting this idea, private acquisitions occur when private targets appear “cheaper” than public firms based on valuation multiples or the trading activity of industry insiders. The revaluation spread varies with overall market misvaluation, predicts future industry returns, and is unrelated to peers’ and industries’ fundamentals. An active market for real assets thus fosters the ability of stock prices to reflect fundamentals.