The effects of a broad based energy tax on the United States economy

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of a broad based energy tax on the United States economy in general and the agricultural sectors in particular. The analytical approach used in the analysis consists of a general equilibrium model composed of fourteen producing sectors, fourteen consuming sectors, six household categories classified by income and a government. The effects of imposing a tax on natural gas, coal, and nuclear power of 25.7 cents per million Btu's and a tax on refined petroleum products of 59.9 cents per million Btu's on prices and quantities are examined. The results are revealing. For example, a Btu tax on energy imposed at the point of production will result in lower output by the producing sectors (by about $122.4 billion US), a decrease in the consumption of goods and services (by about $64.6 billion), and a reduction in welfare (by about $66.6 billion). The government would realize an increase in revenue of about $50.5 billion. In the case of the Btu tax being imposed at the point of consumption, there will be lower output by the producing sectors (by about $83.7 billion), a reduction in the consumption of goods and services (by about $48.3 billion), and a reduction in welfare (by about $49.5 billion). The government would realize an increase in revenue of $41.5 billion. The agricultural sectors would be measurably impacted. For example, if the Btu tax is imposed at the point of production, output in the program crops sector will fall (by $637 million), output in the livestock sector will decline (by $257 million), output in the all other agriculture commodities sector will be reduced (by $54 million), and output in the forestry sector will rise (by $144 million). If the Btu tax is imposed at the point of consumption, output in the program crops sector will fall (by $720 million), output in the livestock sector will decline (by $453 million), output in the all other agriculture commodities sector will be reduced (by $371 million), and output in the forestry sector will rise (by $25 million). Finally, when subjected to a sensitivity analysis, the results are reasonably robust with regard to the assumption of the values of the substitution elasticities.