The effects from the international crude oil returns to Asian frontier oil and gas company stock returns

Abstract

Asian frontier markets present compelling investment opportunities for investors seeking higher returns and low correlation with traditional assets. As such, it is important for financial market participants to understand the volatility transmission mechanism across these markets in order to make better portfolio allocation decisions. This study investigates the magnitude of return and volatility spillovers from the international crude oil markets on the Asian frontier oil and gas stock markets. In particular, we construct mean return and volatility spillover models to discuss whether regional (DSE, CSE, HNX, HOSE) and global (ICE) market impacts are crucial for the determination of oil & gas stock returns in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam by employing ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Using daily returns from January 4, 2010 to December 31, 2019, the findings of this paper show that the Brent oil and WTI crude oil markets influence the Sri Lanka and Vietnamese oil and gas stock markets. WTI price changes, however, have a relatively minor impact on Sri Lanka companies. For Bangladesh, it is noticeable that none of the spillover effects is statically significant. The results are explained by different levels of the reform process in the energy sector as well as by the importance of oil in these markets. In general, these frontier markets, especially the Bangladesh and Sri Lanka may offer promising diversification benefits due to low correlations with developed equity markets. These results are important for economic policymakers and investors in understanding the magnitude of volatility spillover effects of the international crude oil on these markets. Investors can use this information to make better portfolio allocation decisions to reduce risks and enhance returns.