THE EFFECTIVENESS OF HUMAN INTERVENTIONS AGAINST COVID-19 BASED ON EVOLUTIONARY GAME THEORY

Abstract

<abstract> Social distancing strategy (including Six-Foot Rule, wearing masks, and other easy-to-operate measures) and quarantine measures have played a critical role in the early stage of the COVID-19 epidemic. In order to explore the mechanisms of these two human interventions accurately, we develop a coupling epidemiological-behavioral model based on evolutionary game theory. Individuals decide whether to take strategy measures based on rational consideration of payoffs. Moreover, authorities also balance the costs and effectiveness of the interventions at the public level. Our simulation shows that social distancing strategy can suppress every single outbreak effectively. In the early stage of an epidemic, the implementation of the quarantine measures determines the scale of the epidemic. Timely and effective quarantine measures can control recurrent outbreaks without social lockdown. Support policy for individual-level intervention or high diagnosis rates are beneficial to control the epidemic but require long-term social lockdown. </abstract>