The Effectiveness of HEVs Phase-Out by 2035 in Favor of BEVs with Respect to the Production of CO2 Emissions: The Italian Case

Abstract

The EU has planned the phase-out of new vehicles based on internal combustion engines in favor of high-efficiency battery electric vehicles (BEV) by 2035 (Fit for 55 package). However, many doubts remain about the effectiveness of this choice for each country of the Union in terms of CO2 emissions reduction, as each State is characterized by a different carbon intensity related to the production of electricity needed to manufacture and recharge vehicles. This study seeks to explore the Italian case. To this aim, carbon intensities related to electricity production were calculated considering both the Italian electricity mix production in 2022 and those envisaged in 2035, considering two energy scenarios based on different introductions of renewable energy sources (RES). Afterward, the values obtained were adopted for determining the CO2 emissions related to the whole production process of battery systems in Italy (emissions from mining and refining, scrap materials, and final assembly included) by comparing some of the most up-to-date Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) analyses related to the manufacturing cycle of the batteries. Finally, the results were adopted to calculate the starting carbon debit for A, B, C, and M car segments for Mild Hybrid, Full Hybrid, and Full Electric powertrains. At the same time, statistical road fuel/electricity consumption data were collected and overall CO2 emissions were calculated for the same vehicles adopting a dynamic approach and plotted for a defined distance, so as to determine break-even points with respect to the cumulative (i.e., from battery and road) carbon emissions. The results showed that advantages related to electric vehicles are significant only if a low carbon intensity related to electricity production is reached by means of a very high introduction of RES, thus keeping the door open for innovative hybrid powertrain technologies, if fed with low carbon fuels.