The effectiveness of full and partial travel bans against COVID-19 spread in Australia for travellers from China during and after the epidemic peak in China.

Valentina Costantino,C Raina Macintyre,David J Heslop

doi:10.1093/jtm/taaa081

Abstract

BackgroundAustralia implemented a travel ban on China on February 1st 2020, while COVID-19 was largely localised to China. We modelled three scenarios to test the impact of travel bans on epidemic control. Scenario one was no ban, scenario two and three were the current ban followed by a full or partial lifting (allow over 100 000 university students to enter Australia, but not tourists) from the 8th of March 2020.MethodsWe used disease incidence data from China and air travel passenger movements between China and Australia during and after the epidemic peak in China, derived from incoming passenger arrival cards. We used the estimated incidence of disease in China, using data on expected proportion of under-ascertainment of cases, and an age specific deterministic model to model the epidemic in each scenario.ResultsThe modelled epidemic with the full ban fitted the observed incidence of cases well, predicting 57 cases on March 6th in Australia, compared to 66 observed on this date, however we did not account for imported cases from other countries. The modelled impact without a travel ban results in more than 2000 cases and about 400 deaths, if the epidemic remained localised to China and no importations from other countries occurred. The full travel ban reduced cases by about 86%, while the impact of a partial lifting of the ban is minimal, and may be a policy option.ConclusionsTravel restrictions were highly effective for containing the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia during the epidemic peak in China and averted a much larger epidemic at a time when COVID-19 was largely localised to China. This research demonstrates the effectiveness of travel bans applied to countries with high disease incidence. This research can inform decisions on placing or lifting travel bans as a control measure for the COVID-19 epidemic.

Highlights

In response to the epidemic of COVID-19, [1] Australia implemented a travel ban from China on February 1st 2020, adding Iran and South Korea to the ban on February 29th and March 5th respectively
We found that following the peak on February 5th and decline of the epidemic in China, the probability that an infected traveller can arrive in the partial ban scenario is low
We estimated that the travel ban implemented on 1 of February by Australia has been very effective, reducing the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 by about 87%

Summary

Introduction

In response to the epidemic of COVID-19, [1] Australia implemented a travel ban from China on February 1st 2020, adding Iran and South Korea to the ban on February 29th and March 5th respectively. The ban on travel from China has been periodically reviewed, with lifting of restrictions announced on February 23rd for high school students, who number less than 800. Over 120000 university students are unable to enter Australia to commence or resume their studies, and a booming tourism industry has ceased. Travel bans and social distancing measures are effective public health tools to control eNpOiTdEe: Tmhiiscprdepisrientarseeposrt(s2n)e,warensdeaArchutshtartahlaisanostubcecenecsesrftiufielldybdy peelearyreevdiewthaned isnhoturolddnuotcbteiousnedotof gtuhidee1cl9in1ic8al practice.

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