Abstract
Background/Aim: Salmonella spp. are a temperature sensitive pathogen and rising temperature can have a substantial effect on disease burden affecting human health. We examined the relationship between warm season temperature and Salmonella spp. and serotype notifications in Adelaide, Australia. Methods: Time-series Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the effect of temperature during warmer months on Salmonella spp. and serotype cases notified from 1990-2012. Long-term trends, seasonality, autocorrelation and lagged effects were included in the statistical models. Results: Daily Salmonella spp. counts increased by 1.3% (IRR 1.013, 95% CI 1.008-1.019) per 1oC rise in temperature in the warm season with greater increases observed in specific serotype and phage type cases ranging from 3.4% (IRR 1.034, 95% CI 1.008-1.061) to 4.4% (IRR 1.044, 95% CI 1.024-1.064). We observed increased cases of S.Typhimurium PT9 and S.Typhimurium PT108 notifications above a threshold of 38oC. Conclusions: This study has identified the impact of warm season temperature on different Salmonella spp. strains and confirms higher temperature has a greater effect on phage type notifications. The findings will contribute targeted information for public health policy interventions, including food safety programmes during warmer weather.
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