Abstract
Ever greater rated wind turbine generators (WTGs) are reaching their end of design life in the near future. In addition, first research approaches quantified the impact of long-term performance degradation of WTGs. As a consequence, this work is aimed at discussing and analysing the impact of upscaling and performance degradation on the economics of wind turbine lifetime extension. Findings reveal that the lifetime extension levelised cost of energy (LCOE2) of an 18 MW wind farm comprising of 0.5 MW rated WTGs are within the order of £23.52 per MWh. Alternatively, if the same wind farm consists of fewer 2 or 3 MW WTGs, the LCOE2 reduces to £16.56 or £15.49 per MWh, respectively. Further, findings reveal that an annual performance degradation of 1.6% (0.2%) increases LCOE2 by 34-41% (3.6-4.3%).
Highlights
Lifetime extension (LTE) is financially attractive in comparison to new investment and repowering due to the following identified root causes: the ageing of the current European wind fleet as illustrated in Figure 1; the more competitive allocation of onshore subsidies for new investments [1]; the trend of terminating repowering subsidies as observed in Germany, Spain, Denmark, and the UK [2]; the demonstration of competitive lifetime extension levelised cost of energy (LCOE2) [3]; and the comparatively little due diligence for the lifetime extension analysis (LTEA) as well as the hard-won, long-term stakeholder relationships with local communities
3 Results 3.1 Upscaling Figure 6 presents LCOE2 estimates for an 18 MW wind farm consisting of different turbine size classifications for a 5-year lifetime extension period
It is expected that operators and owners will approach LTE from a more strategic point of view (+10-15 years vs. +5 years), especially for greater rated wind turbine generators (WTGs) (2–3 MW) with greater budgets to spend for the LTEA
Summary
Lifetime extension (LTE) is financially attractive in comparison to new investment and repowering due to the following identified root causes: the ageing of the current European wind fleet as illustrated in Figure 1; the more competitive allocation of onshore subsidies for new investments [1]; the trend of terminating repowering subsidies as observed in Germany, Spain, Denmark, and the UK [2]; the demonstration of competitive lifetime extension levelised cost of energy (LCOE2) [3]; and the comparatively little due diligence for the lifetime extension analysis (LTEA) as well as the hard-won, long-term stakeholder relationships with local communities. In 2016, the distribution is predominantly composed of WTG below 0.5 MW and to a lesser impact of WTG in between 0.5 and 1 MW; this distribution is changing significantly over the decade with the pre-dominant WTG class shifting towards installations in between 0.5 and 1 MW. Given this observable trend of greater scale turbines reaching their end of design lifetime, this paper is aimed at analysing the development of lifetime extension LCOE with varying turbine classes.
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