The effect of time interval of bus location data on real-time bus arrival estimations

Abstract

ABSTRACTOne of the key components of real-time bus information systems is knowledge of bus locations in real time. With recent advancements in sensing and communication technologies, location data can be obtained frequently and incorporated into the estimation models. One important issue is determining the suitable time interval at which location data should be chosen as input for estimation models. This paper explores the impact of the time interval of real-time bus location data on the accuracy of bus arrival estimation. It also examines by how much, and at what distance, real-time arrival information can outperform information provided from a static schedule for a given estimation technique. This study also investigates the ‘cutoff horizon,’ the threshold horizon beyond which real-time information no longer outperforms information based on a particular static schedule, and how the cutoff horizon changes with the time interval of bus location data.