The effect of three-strikes legislation on serious crime in California

Abstract

Using county-level data from California for the years 1989–2000, this study explored the effect of three-strikes legislation on serious crime. It improved on most previous research in this area by controlling for how often prosecutors charged offenders under the three-strikes statute. Preliminary findings suggested that larceny was reduced by way of deterrence resulting from three-strikes and that all index crimes were reduced by way of incapacitation. Once county-specific trends were controlled for, however, the deterrent and incapacitative effects of three-strikes legislation disappeared altogether.