The Effect of the Asian Financial Crisis on Stock Returns, Volatility and Market Integration in the Region

Abstract

This paper investigates the change in informational spillover between nine Asian capital markets and the United States as a result of the 1997–98 financial meltdown in Asia. Our study period extends from about three years prior to the start of the crises on July 2, 1997 to one year after this date. We conduct spillover studies on daily stock market index prices and returns to determine the changes in market interdependence. Our results indicate a considerable increase in cross‐border cointegration during the crisis. Dramatic shifts in predictability and volatility spillovers are observed in most Asian countries as a result of the Asian financial crisis, providing evidence of an increase of interdependence between Asian countries, and thus suggesting contagion. We observe a strong interdependence with the US markets before the crisis, which persists during the crisis. We also show that Hong Kong and Korea have emerged as the most dominant influences in the region during the Asian financial crisis.