Abstract
The daily fluctuations in the released number of Covid-19 cases played a big role at the beginning of the pandemic, when local authorities in Italy had to decide whether imposing restrictive policies. When an increase/decrease was communicated, especially a large one, it was difficult to understand if it was due to a change in the epidemic evolution or if it was a fluctuation due to other reasons, such as an increase in the number of swabs or a delay in the swab processing. The aim of this paper is both to model the main trend of the outbreak evolution in the number of confirmed cases and to describe the daily fluctuations strongly dependent on the daily number of swabs. For our analysis, we propose a nonlinear asymmetric diffusion model, which includes information on the daily number of swabs, to describe daily fluctuations in the number of confirmed cases in addition to the main trend of the outbreak evolution. The proposed model is found to be the more efficient for prediction, as compared to 6 already existing models, including the SIRD and the logistic models. The new model combines the properties of innovation diffusion models with a parsimonious way to exploit information about swabs. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-SPER-04 Full Text: PDF
Highlights
Was the first nation to be heavily affected by Covid-19 after China, and the epidemic has mainly been located in Nothern Italy
In Veneto, the local authorities imposed a lockdown on the whole municipality for two weeks; both at the beginning and at the end of the two weeks, the population was tested for the virus through nasopharyngeal swabs, and this approach gave rise to the first epidemiological survey on Covid-19 for understanding its transmission dynamics [1]
The aim of this study was to propose a new model to describe the pattern of COVID-19 cases in the five most affected Italian regions during the first wave of the epidemic
Summary
Was the first nation to be heavily affected by Covid-19 after China, and the epidemic has mainly been located in Nothern Italy. The first case was detected on February 21st, 2020, in the municipality of Vo’, a village near Padua in the Veneto Region of Northeast Italy. An infected patient was detected in the small town of Codogno, which is located in the bordering Lombardy region. In Veneto, the local authorities imposed a lockdown on the whole municipality for two weeks; both at the beginning and at the end of the two weeks, the population was tested for the virus through nasopharyngeal swabs, and this approach gave rise to the first epidemiological survey on Covid-19 for understanding its transmission dynamics [1]. The hospital where the first diagnosis occurred was closed, and people who had previously accessed the facility were tested
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
