The Effect of State Sentencing Policies on Incarceration Rates

Abstract

This aricle explores the relationship between sentencing policies and the state incarceration rate, prison admission rate, and average sentence length in the late 1990s. Presumptive sentencing guidelines represent the only policy consistently related to incarceration and admission rates, whereas three strikes laws may increase the rate of admission to prison among those arrested for drug offenses. Determinate sentencing, mandatory sentencing, and truth-in-sentencing laws have no effect on rates of incarceration or admission. Crime rates, the percentage of the population that is Black, and citizen ideology have the greatest influence on the rates of incarceration and admission across states. The apparently limited effects of sentencing policies on incarceration or admission rates should give pause to state policy makers seeking to quickly alter prison populations through the adoption of such policies without considering other factors that independently influence prison populations in their states.