The effect of sex preference on subsequent fertility in two provinces of China

Abstract

A demographer analyzed birth history data from women with at least 1 child living in Hebei and Shaanxi provinces in China, in 1985 to examine the effect of sex preference on the family building process at the micro- and macrolevel. Fertility fell greatly after implementation of the 1-child policy and China's extensive family planning program. Couples whose 3rd child was a daughter were more likely to have more children than those whose 3rd child was a son. Couples with 2 daughters tended to have a larger family size than all other combinations. Couples whose 1st born was a son and the 2nd born was a daughter had a larger family size than those whose 1st born was a daughter and the 2nd born a son. No evidence appeared that suggested that couples wanted at least 1 daughter. The probability of having another child if the couple's 1st born was not a son was greater than if the 1st born was a son, regardless of family size and province (e.g., for parity 4, 65.3% vs. 44.1% in Hebei and 67.2% vs. 47.9% in Shaanxi). Prior to 1979, date at 1st marriage had a significant negative effect on having a 3rd child (p .001) and accounted for more than 80% of the variation. Age at the birth of the 2nd child also had a significant negative effect (p .001) and explained the remaining variation. On the other hand, after 1979 in Shaanxi, age at 2nd birth accounted for more of the variance than did date of 1st marriage (60% vs. 40%). In Hebei, however, date of 1st marriage still had the most effect, but its effect was less (around 70%). Before 1979, sex composition explained at least 50% of the main effects on continuing childbearing (p .001), but after 1979 and the 1-child policy, it accounted for 71% in Hebei and 91% in Shaanxi. The family planning program did reduce demand for children, but increased preference for sons.