The effect of seasonality on the application of accumulated degree-days to estimate the early post-mortem interval

Abstract

This study investigated the effect of seasonal variables on decomposition in the early post-mortem period using 26 donated human cadavers at the University of Tennessee’s Anthropology Research Facility (ARF), USA. The rate and pattern of decomposition in human cadavers (as measured by TBS and the revised TBSsurf methods) did not vary significantly between all seasons. Summer and autumn cadavers had comparable rates of accelerated decomposition despite significant differences in both ADD and temperature (p<0.05). Spring cadavers had the slowest onset of decomposition characteristics, even compared to the few decomposition characteristics expressed in winter. Seasonal variation in humidity, rather than temperature, may be the overarching driving force for decomposition progression in the early post-mortem period. Both TBS and TBSsurf methods were poor predictors of the PMI (R2=0.4) and significantly over-estimated the PMI across all seasons, although to a lesser extent in spring. This study also demonstrated no relationship between known ADD and TBS/TBSsurf (R2=0.025). TBS and TBSsurf are ADD-based PMI estimation models that cannot be validated under experimental conditions. Accounting for seasonal expression of individual decomposition characteristics is needed for improvement of PMI predictability in forensic practice.