Abstract
Following the research on human decision-making under risk and uncertainty, the purpose of this paper is to analyze evacuees’ risky route decision behavior and its effect on traffic equilibrium. It examines the possibility of applying regret theory to model travellers’ regret-taking behavior and network equilibrium in emergency context. By means of modifying the utility function in expected utility theory, a regret-based evacuation traffic equilibrium model is established, accounting for the evacuee’s psychological behavior of regret aversion and risk aversion. Facing two parallel evacuation routes choice situation, the effect of evacuees’ risk aversion and regret aversion on traffic equilibrium is numerically investigated as well as the road capacity reduction from natural disaster. The findings reveal that evacuees prefer the riskless route with the lower travel time as the increase of the regret aversion degree. The equilibrium tends to be achieved when more evacuees choose the safer route jointly affected by risk aversion and regret aversion. Moreover, an optimization model for disaster occurring possibility is formulated to assess the traffic system performance for evacuation management. These findings are helpful for understanding how the regret aversion and risk aversion influence traffic equilibrium.
Highlights
Traffic equilibrium is a key process of transportation demand analysis and planning. e assumption of the presence of traffic equilibrium can help to predict route flow patterns in the network and evaluate the associated measures of system performance
In contrast to previous studies based on utility framework, a regret-based traffic equilibrium model was formulated accounting for risk and regret aversion decisions. e psychological regret/rejoice may occur when the alternative is worse/better than other alternatives. e decision-makers try to avoid the higher regret, regret aversion
In order to capture this influence on network equilibrium in the real evacuation context, a capacity reduction parameter is introduced to BPR (Bureau of Public Road, BPR) function form adopted in Avineri [36] as follows: tsa where tsaf is free-flow travel time for route a under the state s; k and λ are the parameters; Qsa is the traffic flow on the route a under the state s; Csa is the basic capacity of the route a under the state s; csa is the road capacity reduction parameter under the state s; the smaller the c value, the greater the capacity loss; and tsar is the random travel time of the route a under the state s
Summary
Traffic equilibrium is a key process of transportation demand analysis and planning. e assumption of the presence of traffic equilibrium can help to predict route flow patterns in the network and evaluate the associated measures of system performance. The principle assumption of expected utility maximization lacks behavioral realism in some risky decision-making occasions, especially the emergency evacuation context [10,11,12]. E regret theory relaxes the traditional behavioral assumption and provides an opportunity to account for the regret aversion psychology, especially when people face risky choice decision-making [14]. E review of the existing literature reveals that few studies focus on the traffic equilibrium with regret aversion under evacuation risky decision-making process. Evacuees’ decision behaviors when facing the emergency evacuation are different from that in the regular conditions; their regret and risk aversion should be considered [30, 31].
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