The effect of record-high gasoline prices on the consumers’ new energy vehicle purchase intention: Evidence from the uniform experimental design

Abstract

Geopolitical conflicts and military actions pushed gasoline prices in China into the highest from March to April 2022 for the first time. We aim to quantitatively understand how the rising gasoline and vehicle prices affect consumers' vehicle purchase intention with different demographic characteristics simultaneously. The study applies Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Panel Data Mixed Logit model to analyze the data from the uniform experimental design. We subdivide the respondents into three groups: fuel vehicle owners, new energy vehicle owners, and car-free individuals. The findings show that if the maximum increase price of pure energy vehicles does not exceed 27,000 CNY, fuel vehicle owners will still be inclined to purchase pure energy vehicles, accompanied by China's 95 gasoline rising from 8.44 on February 18th to 9.41 CNY per liter on April 1st, 2022. However, the increasing prices are 25,000 and 22,000 CNY, which will offset the impact of rising gasoline prices on new energy vehicle owners and car-free individuals. The results have implications for introducing fuel tax to cope with adverse changes in consumers' vehicle purchase intention. The study provides theoretical support for analyzing consumers' travel behavior and vehicle purchase intention when gasoline prices have huge fluctuations in the future.