The effect of public opinion on social policy generosity

Abstract

Social scientists have explored the determinants of social policy generosity fairly extensively. But relatively few empirical studies, and virtually no comparative analyses, have assessed the influence of public opinion. There is reason to hypothesize such an effect in democratic countries, as policy makers are likely to respond, at least to some extent, to the policy preferences of the citizenry (Page and Shapiro, 1983; Shapiro and Young, 1989; Burstein, 1998). In a recent article and book, Brooks and Manza (2006, 2007) examine the impact of public support for social policy on social policy generosity. Brooks and Manza conclude that ‘mass policy preferences exert a significant influence over welfare state spending’ in affluent democratic countries (2006, p. 490). They reach this conclusion based on analysis of 43 observations of social policy preferences and social expenditures in 15 countries from the mid-1980s through the end of the 1990s. I suspect public opinion about social policy does indeed have some impact on social policy program details and expenditures. But as I suggest in this research note, I do not think this can be inferred from Brooks and Manza’s evidence.