The Effect of Political Instability on the UK Stock Returns: Evidence from 2016 eferendum and the Major Events that Followed

Abstract

This study examines the consequences of six events on the FTSE100 companies since the UK voted to leave the EU. These are the events that created political uncertainty leading to two General Elections within 30 months. The study examines the relationship between political instability and stock return abnormalities, using event study methodology and regression analysis to establish if such a link exists. Following each event, the UK stock market index declined except when Brexit was extended by six months (Event 5). The results of this study find a definite relationship between instability and return abnormalities, with the post-event abnormal returns proving to be the most significant over the event window. The industry variables were found to be most strongly linked with the CAR values out of all the independent variables, with the healthcare, utilities and basic materials industries exhibiting the most significant reactions. The findings of this study are an additional expectational tool for investors. It will be essential for investors during times of uncertainty.