Abstract

We attempt to find out if changes in political and bureaucratic regimes lead to significant mean shifts in the Australian short-term real interest rate, using quarterly data for the period 1970:3 to 2019:1. Utilising a sophisticated structural break test, three distinct structural breaks are found in Australia's real interest rate. The empirical results show that a model estimated to consider the shifts in the political regime explains more of the variation in the real interest rate compared to a model that incorporates shifts in the bureaucratic regime. Results from several non-nested model selection tests also confirm this finding.

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