Abstract
This study explores the economic impact of Brazil's discovery in 2006 of significant deepwater pre-salt oil reserves. Employing a synthetic control approach using counterfactual data from comparable nations, we estimate the influence on Brazil's real per capita GDP for 2006–2014. Our analysis reveals that the oil discovery resulted in an annual increase of approximately USD 100 in real GDP per capita, with the growth effects commencing in 2008 and gradually waning by 2014. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the economic implications of oil discovery in the Brazilian context, providing valuable insights for investors and policymakers making strategic energy policy.
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