The effect of model structure and data availability on Usutu virus dynamics at three biological scales.

Abstract

Understanding the epidemiology of emerging pathogens, such as Usutu virus (USUV) infections, requires systems investigation at each scale involved in the host-virus transmission cycle, from individual bird infections, to bird-to-vector transmissions, and to USUV incidence in bird and vector populations. For new pathogens field data are sparse, and predictions can be aided by the use of laboratory-type inoculation and transmission experiments combined with dynamical mathematical modelling. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of two strains of USUV by constructing mathematical models for the within-host scale, bird-to-vector transmission scale and vector-borne epidemiological scale. We used individual within-host infectious virus data and per cent mosquito infection data to predict USUV incidence in birds and mosquitoes. We addressed the dependence of predictions on model structure, data uncertainty and experimental design. We found that uncertainty in predictions at one scale change predicted results at another scale. We proposed in silico experiments that showed that sampling every 12 hours ensures practical identifiability of the within-host scale model. At the same time, we showed that practical identifiability of the transmission scale functions can only be improved under unrealistically high sampling regimes. Instead, we proposed optimal experimental designs and suggested the types of experiments that can ensure identifiability at the transmission scale and, hence, induce robustness in predictions at the epidemiological scale.