Abstract
We investigate whether the stock of foreigners residing in a country leads to a larger number of terrorist attacks on that country. Our instrument for the stock of foreigners relies on the interaction of two sets of variables. Variation across host-origin-dyads results from structural characteristics between the country of origin and the host, while variation over time makes use of changes in push and pull factors between host and origin countries resulting from natural disasters. Controlling for the levels of these variables themselves and fixed effects for dyads and years, the interaction provides a powerful and excludable instrument. Using data for 20 OECD host countries and 187 countries of origin over the 1980-2010 period we show that the probability of a terrorist attack increases with a larger number of foreigners living in a country. However, this scale effect is not larger than the effect domestic populations have on domestic terror. We find some evidence that terror is systematically imported from countries with large Muslim populations. A larger number of attacks against foreigners in the host country increases the risk of terror from foreigners there. We find that host country policies relating to integration and the rights of foreigners are key to fight terror- stricter policies that exclude foreigners already living in a country increase the risk of terror. High-skilled migrants are associated with a significantly lower risk of terror compared to low-skilled ones, while there is no significant difference between male and female migrants.
Highlights
There is clear and systematic evidence that countries threatened by terrorist attacks respond to this threat to their values by diminishing the very rights they aim to protect in the first place (Dreher et al 2010)
This scale effect relating larger numbers of foreigners to more attacks does not imply that foreigners are more likely to become terrorists compared to the domestic population
Just like Gassebner and Luechinger (2011), we find no significant effect of host country GDP and population
Summary
There is clear and systematic evidence that countries threatened by terrorist attacks respond to this threat to their values by diminishing the very rights they aim to protect in the first place (Dreher et al 2010). Plenty of evidence suggests that stricter immigration and visa policies are a preferred reaction to terrorist attacks (Fitzpatrick 2002, Martin and Martin 2004, Avdan 2014).. Bush issued a Presidential Directive introducing stricter immigration policies to combat terrorism. The new Department explicitly links immigration policies to anti-terrorism strategies (Kerwin 2005). In the 2016 US-Presidential election, the Republican candidate promised to ban all Muslims from immigration to the United States if he were to win the election. After his inauguration he issued a travel ban for six predominantly Muslim countries
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