The Effect of Mating Probability on Risk Taking: An Experimental Study in Lekking Great Snipe

Abstract

We model the relationship between mating probability and risk taking for lekking animals disturbed by predators. Our dynamic model is based on different mating probabilities among the lekking males and a decline in both predation risk and mating probability with hiding time after a predator attack at the lek. The model predicts that a lekking male with low expected mating probability should hide for a longer period after a predator attack than a male with high mating probability. It also predicts that males should hide for a longer period when predation risk is high and that a high mating advantage of a rapid return after an attack reduces the differences in optimal hiding time among males with different mating probabilities. To test the first prediction from the model, we have flushed great snipe (Gallinago media) males from leks and compared their hiding times to their temporary expected mating probabilities. As predicted by our model, males with the highest expected probabilities of mating had the shortest hiding times. Empirical data also showed that individuals adjusted their hiding time to temporary changes in their probability of mating. Such plasticity in mating behavior may reduce differences among males in lifetime reproductive success and thus also reduce the intensity of sexual selection.