The effect of macroscopic herd inputs on individual investment behaviour

Abstract

Decisions are rarely made in isolation and the role of others’ decisions in guiding our own has been observed in a diversity of contexts. This influence is often argued to result from an information cascade, where decisions in a sequential setting are influenced by the early decisions of others. However, the degree to which individuals modify behaviour through the integration of social information (i.e., other people’s decisions) varies considerably. While significant literature has been dedicated to understanding individual determinants for this variation, we propose that we should not ignore the aggregate characteristics of the herd itself. Specifically, we examine whether the scale and longevity of the herd itself at the time when an individual decides, defined as macroscopic herd inputs, influence whether individuals integrate social information. By employing data from a social trading platform, we find that macroscopic herd inputs exert a strong influence on individual investment decisions, showing that the influence of others’ behaviour on our own is in part dependent on the nature of the herd itself.