The Effect of Low HBV-DNA Viral Load on Recurrence in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Who Underwent Primary Locoregional Treatment and the Development of a Nomogram Prediction Model.

Abstract

(1) Background: HBV-DNA is an essential clinical indicator of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognosis. Our study aimed to investigate the prognostic implication of a low load of HBV-DNA in HCC patients who underwent local treatment. Additionally, we developed and validated a nomogram to predict the recurrence of patients with low (20-100 IU/mL) viral loads (L-VL). (2) Methods: A total of 475 HBV-HCC patients were enrolled, including 403 L-VL patients and 72 patients with very low (<20 IU/mL) viral loads (VL-VL). L-VL HCC patients were randomly divided into a training set (N = 282) and a validation set (N = 121) at a ratio of 7:3. Utilizing the Lasso-Cox regression analysis, we identified independent risk factors for constructing a nomogram. (3) Results: L-VL patients had significantly shorter RFS than VL-VL patients (38.2 m vs. 23.4 m, p = 0.024). The content of the nomogram included gender, BCLC stage, Glob, and MLR. The C-index (0.682 vs. 0.609); 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs (0.729, 0.784, and 0.783, vs. 0.631, 0.634, the 0.665); calibration curves; and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves of the training and validation cohorts proved the excellent predictive performance of the nomogram. There was a statistically significant difference in RFS between the low-, immediate-, and high-risk groups both in the training and validation cohorts (p < 0.001); (4) Conclusions: Patients with L-VL had a worse prognosis. The nomogram developed and validated in this study has the advantage of predicting patients with L-VL.