The Effect of Local and Global Interventions on Epidemic Spreading.

Jiarui Fan,Xiaochen He,Yang Wang,Haifeng Du

doi:10.3390/ijerph182312627

Jiarui Fan, Xiaochen He + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182312627

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Abstract

Epidemic spreading causes severe challenges to the global public health system, and global and local interventions are considered an effective way to contain such spreading, including school closures (local), border control (global), etc. However, there is little study on comparing the efficiency of global and local interventions on epidemic spreading. Here, we develop a new model based on the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with an additional compartment called “quarantine status”. We simulate various kinds of outbreaks and interventions. Firstly, we predict, consistent with previous studies, interventions reduce epidemic spreading to 16% of its normal level. Moreover, we compare the effect of global and local interventions and find that local interventions are more effective than global ones. We then study the relationships between incubation period and interventions, finding that early implementation of rigorous intervention significantly reduced the scale of the epidemic. Strikingly, we suggest a Pareto optimal in the intervention when resources were limited. Finally, we show that combining global and local interventions is the most effective way to contain the pandemic spreading if initially infected individuals are concentrated in localized regions. Our work deepens our understandings of the role of interventions on the pandemic, and informs an actionable strategy to contain it.

Highlights

A pandemic, such as the Spanish Flu, the Ebola virus, and COVID-19, has tremendous impact on human economic productions and life
To To quantitatively answer this question, we begin thewith traditional since viruses have the characteristics of incubation period, susceptible individuals since viruses have the characteristics of incubation period, susceptible individuals may may become bywith contact the of I-infected, infection I-infected, and become become infected infected by contact the with source of source infection and become asympasymptomatic case of COVID-19, theWHO
We compare the epidemic spreading under the conditions spread of virus? To this end, we compare the epidemic spreading under the conditions of no travel restriction with the one under both global and local interventions

Summary

Introduction

A pandemic, such as the Spanish Flu, the Ebola virus, and COVID-19, has tremendous impact on human economic productions and life. In early days of the rapid pandemic spreading, especially faced with a lack of vaccines, many countries took global and local interventions, which are essential components of public health. These strategies include travel restrictions, school/workplace closure, border control, cancellation of massive gathering activities, quarantine of exposed individuals, contact tracing and others [1–3]. More than 150 countries have imposed restrictions on ships/flights/trains, restricting gathering activities, recommending people reduce travel and implementing other restrictions due to COVID-19 These strategies aim to reduce peak size of the pandemic and delay the transmission time, albeit at a large economic and social cost [4–7]. The question remains, is it a good idea to lease the global and local interventions? To what extent do these strategies reduce the spreading? Is there a difference in the interventions of infectious diseases with different incubation periods?

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