Abstract
We use recent developments in the empirics of comparative case studies to analyze the effect of binding emission targets under the Kyoto Protocol on the development of CO2 emissions of seven major Annex B countries. In particular, we investigate whether committing to a specific greenhouse gas emissions target had an effect on actual CO2 emissions of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Japan by using a synthetic control approach. With the exception of Great Britain, we are not able to reject the hypothesis that there has been no effect of binding emission targets on actual emissions.
Highlights
The international community persistently fails to agree on a uniform climate policy succeeding the Kyoto Protocol (KP).1 This has already become apparent during the climate conferences in Copenhagen and Cancún in December 2009 and 2010
In our analysis we focus on seven major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters with binding GHG emission targets under the KP, namely Australia, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Italy
Neither do the predicted emission paths deviate from the actual ones in any considerable amount nor does the inference analysis show any kind of higher gap between actual and predicted paths of these countries relative to donor countries
Summary
The international community persistently fails to agree on a uniform climate policy succeeding the Kyoto Protocol (KP). This has already become apparent during the climate conferences in Copenhagen and Cancún in December 2009 and 2010. Some industrialized countries (e.g., Canada, Japan, and Russia) are no longer willing to accept restrictions on their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In spite of these obstacles, a renewal of the KP is considered as one of the few solutions with at least modest chances to gain sufficient international support. It is not clear whether a continuation of the KP – even if extended to include countries in transition such as China, India or Brazil – is such a good idea. The key question one might ask before considering a particular agreement to be prolonged or extended is whether and to what degree it has been successful
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