The effect of inward FDI on outward FDI over time in China: A contingent and dynamic perspective

Abstract

Drawing on the investment development path (IDP) framework and foreign direct investment (FDI) spillover literature, this study attempts to identify the contingent and dynamic effect of inward FDI (IFDI) on outward FDI (OFDI) at a provincial level. Using panel data from China, our findings reveal that the positive effect of IFDI on OFDI is stronger in provinces with high economic development, albeit at a diminishing rate over time. However, the level of corruption weakens the effect of IFDI on OFDI over time. Despite that, we find that the effect of IFDI on OFDI is not contingent on trade openness overall. By decomposing trade openness into two dimensions, that is, import intensity and export intensity, our findings indicate that the effect of IFDI on OFDI depends on export intensity, rather than import intensity. Our study provides insights into the complex effect of IFDI on OFDI from a contingent and dynamic perspective.