Abstract
The range shifts of plants are a result of dynamic interactions among climate change, land-use change, and dispersal capacity. Our study aimed to explore the dynamic roles of climate change, land-use change, and dispersal capacity in the redistributions of five warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved plants, namely, Pittosporumtobira, Raphiolepisindicavar.umbellata, Neolitsea sericea,Ilex integra, and Euryaemarginata in the Republic of Korea. For this, we predicted the current and future distributions in 2070 of five species under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5, RCP 8.5), two land-use change scenarios, shared socioeconomic pathways 1 and 3 (SSP1, SSP3), and four dispersal scenarios, namely, no dispersal (ND), short-distance dispersal (SDD), long-distance dispersal (LDD), full dispersal (FD). Then, we compared the predictions. The results indicated that the traditional SDM predictions, assuming only climate change, presented significant range expansions for all five plants, approximately 39% to 299% under RCP4.5 and 51% to 544% under RCP8.5. However, when compared with the traditional SDM predictions, coupling land-use change and the predictions decreased the future ranges by an average of 45%, ranging from 36% to 51%. Linking land-use change and realistic dispersal abilities, SDD and LDD, to the predictions reduced the future ranges by an average of 59%, ranging from 53% to 66%. Land-use factor alone decreased the future range by an average of 45%, ranging from 36% to 51%, and dispersal capacity by an average of 14%, ranging from 6% to 30%. In conclusion, climate change and land-use change were, on average, more influential than dispersal capacity in the range dynamics of plants. However, the influential power of those factors was species-specific, showing the strong effect of dispersal capacity on the future range of P. tobira.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
