The effect of induced optimism on the optimistic update bias

Shinpei Yoshimura,Yuma Hashimoto

doi:10.1186/s40359-020-0389-6

Abstract

BackgroundIndividuals tend to have an optimism bias, processing desirable information more frequently than undesirable information. However, people who have been diagnosed with depression often have a more pessimistic view of the future. A recent study suggests that future expectations in individuals with dysphoria become more optimistic when asked to make optimistic future predictions about the future. In the present study, we investigated the differential effects of induced optimism training which making optimistic future prediction to change future beliefs in normal participants with various levels of dysphoria (low, mild, high).MethodsWe recruited normal participants (n = 69) from a local university students and divided participants into three groups (low, mild, high dysphoria) by measuring dysphoric mood. These three groups were assigned to the induced optimism training or control condition. After the training, participants performed the two-stage belief updating task. In the first stage, participants estimated their personal probability of experiencing adverse events while being presented with the average probability of the event occurring to a living person. This information could be desirable for participants(when presented with a probability that was below their estimation) or undesirable (when presented with a probability that was above their estimation). To assess how desirable versus undesirable information influenced beliefs, participants estimated their personal probability of experiencing the events again in the second stage. The amount of update error was calculated as the difference between the estimates in the first stage and the second stage. The difference between the errors was classified as the update bias.ResultsAfter the induced optimism training, individuals with the mild dysphoria demonstrated a higher update bias than low (p < .001) and the high dysphoria (p < .05) group in induced optimism condition. Significant differences were not found in control group. Results indicates that individuals in the mild dysphoria group showed an increased update bias after being exposed to the induced optimism training Dysphoric mood and trait optimism remained unchanged in both the experimental and control groups.ConclusionsResults suggest that induced optimism training has potential to change individuals with mild dysphoria perceptions’ about the future.

Highlights

Individuals tend to have an optimism bias, processing desirable information more frequently than undesirable information
There were no interactions among the condition and the dysphoria group on Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (CES-D) and LOTR scores
The main effect of the dysphoria group was significant in the CES-D score F (2, 63) = 96.34, p < .001, partial η2 = .75, post hoc tests: high > mild > low, all p < .001) and Life Orientation Test Revised (LOT-R) score (F (2,63) = 5.81, p < .01, partial η2 = 0.13, post hoc tests: low > high, p < .01)

Summary

Introduction

Individuals tend to have an optimism bias, processing desirable information more frequently than undesirable information. Individuals with depression often expect negative future events to occur more often. Other evidence suggests that individuals with depression do hold more pessimistic expectations about the future than do individuals without depression, perceiving positive events as less likely and negative events as more likely [6,7,8]. Based on these findings, individuals with depression are considered to have a negative outlook about the future. Dysphoria can be considered as subclinical levels of depression [11], and analogues of clinical symptom of depression [12]

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